The dollar-dong exchange rate will rise
The dollar-dong exchange rate will rise

May 16, 2010 ·

May 15, 2010
There will be rising pressure on dollar supply later this year as demand for the greenback is expected to surge sharply as businesses begin to repay dollar loans, an official said.
Dollar loans expanded 17.07 percent in the first four months this year, compared with only 2 percent growth in dong loans, Le Xuan Nghia, vice chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, told Thanh Nien.
Businesses have been borrowing a huge amount of dollars from banks and they will drive demand for the currency up in the third and final quarters when the loans mature, Nghia said.
The dollar-dong exchange rate will rise and there will be waves on the currency market, he said.
Nguyen Manh, Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam’s treasury head, said the exchange rate will go up soon.
Many firms sold their dollar loans, boosting dollar supply on the market but this trend will be reversed when they start repaying the loans, he said. “In general the exchange rate will be put under high pressure.”
An expert told Thanh Nien as interest rates for dollar loans in the first quarter were 8-9 percentage points lower than dong lending rates, many local companies decided to switch to short term dollar loans.
Most loans are short term, ranging from three to six months, so it’s already time for some loans to be repaid, the expert said.

http://www.vietfinancenews.com/2010/...-surge-in.html (http://www.vietfinancenews.com/2010/05/vietnam-dollar-demand-to-surge-in.html)

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Muy buena noticia Pantera. Gracias por mantenernos informados. Buen trabajo.

gracias por tus magnificas aportaciones

Excelenteeeeeeeeeeee, que lo suban yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!


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May 17, 2010

Dollar loan surge may pressure exchange rate (http://www.vietfinancenews.com/2010/05/dollar-loan-surge-may-pressure-exchange.html)

VietFinanceNews.com - A rise in dollar loans in Vietnam could put pressure on the dollar/dong exchange rate later this year when corporate borrowers seek to repay their debt, bankers said on Monday.




But any market impact would likely be limited as the State Bank of Vietnam, or the central bank, is expected to step in to help cool dollar demand, seen coming from July as most dollar loans carry terms of three or six months, they said.


"Loans in foreign currency rose fast so far this year because companies consider the lending rates more attractive than those on the dong," an official with a Vietnamese bank in Hanoi said.


She said dollar loans, now offered at 6.5-7.0 percent versus 14-15 percent in dong lending rates, picked up strongly in March and April, partly because companies saw a stable exchange rate.


The dollar has so far this year gained only 2.7 percent against the dong, standing at 18,990/19,040 dong on Monday, after rising 5.4 percent in 2009.


Dollar loans at the end of April rose 17.5 percent from the end of 2009 while dong loans only increased 2.3 percent in the same period, the central bank-run Vietnam Banking newspaper said in a weekend report.


In April alone, dollar loans rose 3 percent from March, exceeding the lending pace in the dong of 1.41 percent, the central bank said in a separate monthly report.


Bankers said the risk of fast dollar loan growth would emerge in the second half of the year.


"For companies which do not have dollar income, their dollar demand will put pressure on banks and on the exchange rate," another Vietnamese banker said.


Last Thursday the central bank pledged to keep the foreign exchange rate stable, looking to dispel market uncertainty following media reports suggesting the currency would be devalued by 4 percent.


The central bank also said banks had sold $1 billion since mid-April to the central bank thanks to their dollar surplus.


Dollar/dong rate softened to 18,940/19,040 dong per dollar on the interbank market last Friday after the central bank's comment, from 19,005/19,025 dong per dollar last Thursday.


Some expect the rising dollar loans to have little impact on the dong exchange rate.


Asia Commercial Bank Deputy Chief Ecutive Do Minh Toan was quoted by Monday's Tuoi Tre newspaper as saying the exchange rate would not fluctuate strongly as most of dollar borrowers are export firms which have dollar income and can repay easily.


As an additional supply of foreign exchange, the Japanese government signed an agreement last Friday on a soft loan worth $306 million to help Vietnam build a highway, improve water environment in Ho Chi Minh City and to cope with climate change.


On the macro level, Vietnam estimated its trade deficit in the first four months of 2010 widened to $4.65 billion from a gap of $215 million a year earlier.


But for the whole of 2010, the government forecast the trade deficit to narrow to $12.12 billion, from $12.25 billion in 2009.:happy64:

Gracias Pantera,

Esa es muy buena noticia, para levantar los animos.
DTB